Oil prices surged over 10% on March 12, 2026, with Brent crude exceeding $100 per barrel and U.S. crude topping $96, amid the IEA’s warning of the largest global oil supply disruption from the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.
Market Impact
Stocks plunged—the S&P 500 fell 1.5%, Nasdaq 1.8%, Dow 740 points, Russell 2000 2%—while 30-year mortgages hit 6.30%, pushed by rising U.S. bonds. Gas prices climbed nearly 70 cents since March 1 to $3.59/gallon, with U.S. crude up 40% since war began.
Regional Disruptions
Iran’s new supreme leader called for closing the Strait of Hormuz (20% of world energy transit), now a trickle; terminals evacuated in Oman, Iraq suspended ops, strikes reported in Saudi Arabia, Dubai, Kuwait. TotalEnergies halted 15% output in Qatar/Iraq/UAE; SLB shut regional ops. IEA’s 400M-barrel release (U.S. 172M) starts next week over 120 days—mere Band-Aid.
Official Reactions
President Trump prioritized stopping Iran’s nuclear threat over price hikes (“we make money”); Navy escorts proposed but delayed per Energy Sec. Chris Wright/Treas. Scott Bessent. India limits business fuel to curb hoarding. Analyst Helima Croft deems it worse than Russia-Ukraine, resolvable only by reopening Hormuz safely.
