Brace yourself: forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are calling for an above-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic for 2024. The official outlook, released by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, gives an 85% chance of a more active-than-usual season, with only a 10% chance of near-normal activity and a mere 5% chance of a quieter year.
What to Expect This Season
The forecast calls for:
- 17 to 25 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher)
- 8 to 13 hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher)
- 4 to 7 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher, with winds of 111 mph or more)
NOAA says it has 70% confidence in these numbers.
So, why the spike in activity? Several factors are coming together to create ideal conditions for storm formation:
- Record-warm Atlantic Ocean temperatures
- La Niña expected to develop in the Pacific, which typically reduces wind shear in the Atlantic
- Light trade winds that allow storms to grow without disruption
- An active West African monsoon, known to generate powerful tropical waves
Climate change is also playing a role, warming ocean waters and raising sea levels, both of which can intensify hurricanes and increase the threat of storm surge.
“With another active hurricane season approaching, NOAA’s commitment to keeping every American informed with lifesaving information is unwavering,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D.
“Severe weather and emergencies can happen at any moment,” added FEMA Deputy Administrator Erik A. Hooks. “Taking a proactive approach today can make a big difference tomorrow.”
What’s New for 2024: Smarter Warnings, Better Access
This year, NOAA is enhancing its communication tools to keep the public better informed:
- Expanded Spanish-language forecast products, including advisories and updates
- New experimental graphics (starting mid-August) will show inland tropical storm and hurricane watches/warnings on the forecast cone
- Faster warning updates: The National Hurricane Center can now issue updated warnings between their usual six-hour intervals, giving the public more timely alerts
These upgrades aim to help communities better prepare for potential threats and speed up recovery efforts when storms strike.
