Social Security beneficiaries in the United States will see a Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) increase in 2026. But experts say it won’t be enough to truly cover the rising cost of living, especially for retirees.
Inflation continues to make everyday life more expensive. While COLA is meant to help Social Security recipients keep up with inflation, this year’s expected increase may not reflect the real expenses people are facing—particularly seniors who spend more on housing and healthcare.
What Is COLA and How Is It Calculated?
COLA is a yearly adjustment made by the Social Security Administration (SSA) to ensure that the value of Social Security payments keeps up with inflation. It is calculated using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W).
Here’s how it works:
The SSA compares CPI-W data from the third quarter (July to September) of the current year to the same period from the previous year.
The percentage increase becomes the COLA for the next year.
The new payment amounts start from January and continue through December of the next year.
While this system is simple, experts believe it doesn’t truly reflect the needs of retirees, because CPI-W is based on the spending patterns of younger, working-age people—not older adults.
Why COLA Isn’t Enough for Retirees
In the first half of 2025, CPI-W rose by 2.4%. But during the same period, housing costs for retirees went up by 3.9%, and healthcare costs rose by 2.8%. That means many retirees are falling behind, as their benefits don’t stretch as far as they used to.
Groups like The Senior Citizens League and the Employee Benefit Research Institute have raised concerns about this. They say COLA increases have not kept pace with real-world expenses since 2010. Many retirees now feel insecure about their financial future.
Government Actions and Challenges
To make things worse, a hiring freeze in federal agencies ordered by former President Trump has affected how inflation data is collected. According to The Wall Street Journal, this makes inflation surveys less accurate and can lead to misleading COLA calculations.
Because of these issues, the expected COLA increase for 2026 is likely to be only between 2.6% and 2.7%—a figure that is still far below the rise in essential living costs faced by the elderly.
Retirees Face an Uncertain Future
Retirees across the country are growing more worried. According to surveys by the Employee Benefit Research Institute, only about one-third of retirees feel “very confident” that they have enough money to live comfortably for the rest of their lives.
This shows how inflation is directly affecting the quality of life for millions of elderly Americans. Many of them rely on Social Security as their main source of income, and when COLA increases fall short, their ability to afford essentials like food, medicine, and rent is impacted.
The SSA is expected to announce the official 2026 COLA figures in October, and more details about related support measures may be shared then. Until that happens, many retirees remain in a state of financial stress and uncertainty.
