Early forecasts for the 2026 hurricane season suggest a slightly quieter year than usual, though experts caution that risks still remain.
Below-Average Activity Expected
Colorado State University’s first outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season predicts 13 named storms.
Of those, six are expected to become hurricanes, with two strengthening into major hurricanes.
That projection falls just below the seasonal average of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
Role of El Niño
Forecasters say the El Niño-Southern Oscillation will play a key role in how active the season becomes.
El Niño conditions typically increase wind shear in the Atlantic, which can disrupt storm formation and limit storm strength.
If those conditions persist, they could help suppress hurricane development across the basin.
Landfall Risk Lowered
The outlook also points to a reduced likelihood of storms making landfall along the U.S. coastline.
For the East Coast, including Florida, the probability of a landfalling storm is estimated at 15%, compared to the historical average of 21%.
Not Risk-Free
Despite the slightly lower projections, experts emphasize that it only takes one storm to cause significant damage.
Even in quieter seasons, coastal communities are urged to prepare and stay aware as hurricane season approaches.
